Is the women’s world title race about to play out as one of one of surfing’s greatest comeback stories? Can an Italian emerge from a sea of Brazilian goofy-foots and bring a surfing title to the Mediterranean?
The Rip Curl Pro Portugal marks the start of the Championship Tour’s fourth quarter. As the first-ever event with a reduced postseason field of 22 men and 14 women, Supertubos kicks off the real race towards the finish line.
With three events remaining, there are a slew of surfers still with a realistic shot at the men’s and women’s titles. Gabriela Bryan leads the women, with Carissa Moore, Sawyer Lindblad, Molly Picklum, and a surging Erin Brooks close behind. On the men’s side, Yago Dora leads in defense of his 2025 title, followed by Leo Fioravanti — enjoying the best season of his career — and former world champs Italo Ferreira and Gabriel Medina.
Here are five opening round heats in Portugal that can shape the title race.
Erin Brooks vs Tyler Wright
History tells us that when a surfer wins three consecutive CT events, they usually go on to win the world title. Kelly Slater, Tom Curren, Steph Gilmore, and Sofia Mulanovich are among the legends who have accomplished that feat. Now Erin Brooks is in the club. But after she started the season poorly, she probably needs to win another event or two to give herself a real chance.
Brooks is currently in fifth, less than 7,000 points off the lead. No other surfer in the world is as in tune with their surfing as she is now. She’ll face Tyler Wright, who, despite having a down year, has made a final before at Supertubos. Brooks needs to take down the former world champ if she wants to keep her title contention alive. She already has more poor showings than the three results she can discard.
Brooks made the semis in Portugal last year, so she’ll need to do that, if not better.
Liam O’Brien vs Filipe Toledo
Liam O’Brien is having a respectable year, ranked 12th. Filipe Toledo, on the other hand, has floundered most of the season, save for a semifinal finish on the Gold Coast. Neither is in title contention, but the winner of their opening round heat will face Gabriel Medina, who is.
Toledo is having a down year (or maybe just fading away post-sabbatical), but he’s a force to reckon with at Supertubos and Medina knows it. Toledo has won the event and finished runner-up.
Medina gained ground in the title race after his runner-up finish in Fiji, but he slipped at Trestles with an early elimination. He’s still within striking distance of the title, but currently in fifth, he has four elite surfers ahead of him. That’s a lot of spots to pass in just three events, but not impossible given that Pipeline is weighted 1.5 times the other events.
Italo Ferreira vs the winner of Jack Robinson and Joao Chianca
Ferreira has come close to earning his second title on multiple occasions. After his maiden 2019 title, he finished runner-up twice during the former Final 5 format era. But he’s won at Pipeline and Portugal, and he’s as well suited as anyone for the tubes/turns performance combinations awaiting at Cloud 9. Ferreira might be a sneaky pick to spoil Dora’s and Fioravanti’s title aspirations.
Of all the title contenders pre-seeded into round two in Portugal, you could argue that Ferreira has the toughest matchup. After the postseason cut, there are no easy heats. But Ferreira will take on the winner of Jack Robinson and Joao Chianca — two surfers capable of performing in whatever conditions Supertubos provides, and both with a repertoire that can win any heat.
If Ferreira wishes to remain relevant in the rankings, this heat is a must-win.
Carissa Moore vs Teresa Bonvalot
While Erin Brooks has been deservedly grabbing headlines lately, Carissa Moore is also putting together a historic season. In her first year back from maternity leave, she’s racked up two wins and is just a mere 500 points from the rankings lead and a sixth world title.
For Supertubos, Moore drew the local wildcard Teresa Bonvalot. Any home-country advantage Bonvalot has should be negated by Moore’s experience surfing in Portugal. She’s surfed 10 excellent waves in the event during her decorated career.
Moore will be looking for another good result to surpass Gabriela Bryan by the time the season gets to Pipeline — a venue that Moore has proven she can win.
Molly Picklum vs Yolanda Hopkins
Molly Picklum has been flying under the radar this season. But she has quietly put together a strong season with few poor results. She hasn’t won an event this year, but the reigning world champ is currently ranked fourth, just 4,000 points behind Bryan. That distance can be closed by one event if things go her way.
Picklum, like Moore, will have to face one of the local surfers. Yolanda Hopkins has appeared in the event twice as a wildcard, earning 5th and 9th places. If Picklum can take out Hopkins and get momentum going, Supertubos is a good opportunity to assert herself as a leading title contender. She’ll be among the favorites to take the sweetened pot of 15,000 points at Pipeline; she just needs to continue improving upon her position in the rankings over the final three events.
