Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are predicting a “below normal” 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. The development of El Niño conditions in the Pacific are a major influence, as the climate event typically supports fewer tropical storms and hurricanes in the June 1 to November 30 window.
NOAA forecasters predict a 55 percent chance that the total number of named storms falls below the 14-storm threshold with seven hurricanes that constitute an “average” season. A news release from the administration this week announced 8-14 named storms in total (winds of 39 mph or higher). They expect just 3-6 becoming hurricanes (categories 3, 4, or 5, with winds of 111 mph and higher).
Here’s hoping East Coast surfers still have a fun season – albeit this year, maybe with less destructive weather. Last year was definitely the model.
In 2010, NOAA forecasters began issuing Atlantic hurricane season ranges that were larger than previous seasonal predictions. Prior to that, their seasonal forecasts missed the mark regularly, but forecasts have fallen within the administration’s predicted range for five consecutive years now. Last year, for example, NOAA predicted an above-normal season in the range of 13-18 named storms. A slow September, which is typically the height of hurricane season, served as a bit of a breather before the season closed out barely reaching the low end of NOAA’s range. There were 13 storms in total with just five of them becoming hurricanes.
